New housing data reveals some surprises and opportunities for REALTORS®
In his mid-year housing forecast, National Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun revealed some surprising shifts in the housing marketplace nationwide, that reveals a new series of challenges and opportunities for REALTORS®. Despite a series of national headlines regarding price corrections and interest rate hikes, Yun believes there is a much different story when you break down the data.
- Falling housing prices may be over – with more buyers returning, limited inventory and stabilizing prices
- Washington house prices fell -1.4% last quarter, but are still up 2.6% from last year, and up 38% from 2020
- Yun predicts mortgage rates will continue to rise this year, but begin falling into the 6% range in 2024
- Greater demand from Millennials for entry-level housing, but many have become priced out of the marketplace
- Market factors reveal we may be at the top of home-ownership rates, currently 67% in Washington State
- 86% of Buyers remain steadfast in using a REALTOR®, versus buying with technology.
- 87% of Sellers want a full-service REALTOR®
- Foreclosures nationwide are at historical lows below 2%
Changes in the Marketplace
For the first time, the national data reveals key changes that can present new opportunities for REALTORS®. Yun says these developing changes may challenge a few traditional beliefs that have stayed consistent for decades. Among these changes:
- A large jump in the average number of miles people are moving. With 25% of movers traveling over 400-miles (compared to 50-miles just a few years ago)
- Average age of repeat buyers now 59 years old, compared to 36 years old a few years ago
- Virtual sales now 10% of the marketplace, with these purchases made sight unseen (putting greater emphasis on virtual tours of homes)
- Non-primary buyers now 18% of the marketplace, with may used a vacation homes or rentals
- Cash buyers up to 26% of the market nationwide
- Concept of “Not wanting to give up their low interest rate” – still a critical factor in the sellers market
Overall, Yun believes we will see a slight regression in overall prices and sales for 2023, but remains optimistic for increases in 2024 with lower interest rates and new emphasis on housing construction. He also predicts housing rents will see an increase this year, with stabilization more inline with the Consumer Price Index in 2024.
DOWNLOAD YUNS FORECAST HERE
REALTOR® OPPORTUNITY SLIDES HERE