Notes

Slide Show

Outline

1	Housing Market Dynamics: Washington, Spokane SAR Annual Meeting October 30, 2008 Glenn E. Crellin Washington Center for Real Estate Research/WSU
2	Foundations of Real Estate Market Population Jobs Income Interest Rates
3	Population Growth
4	Employment Growth Trends
5	Median HH Income
6	Mortgage Interest Rates—History
7	Mortgage Interest Rates
8	Washington Housing Market History
9	Spokane Housing
10	Recent Spokane Home Sales (SAAR)
11	Washington Housing Prices – Trend
12	Appreciation – OFHEO
13	Housing Affordability Trend
14	Recent First-time Buyer Affordability
15	Financing Instruments Before Great Depression Interest only with balloon 1930s-2000 Amortizing (Fixed and Adjustable) 2001-2006 Anything goes 2008 Lenders disappear Terms normalize Resurgent FHA
16	Housing Market 2002-2005 Low interest rates Easy qualification Rapid price increases Active construction Many home sales Investors galore
17	Housing Market 2006 Rising interest rates Fewer investors Severe affordability problems Slower sales and construction Media “Bubble” stories
18	Housing Market 2007-08 Market continues to soften Prices decline Buyers disappear Inventory available for sale increases Subprime mortgage market collapse Qualification standards tightened Media claims housing ‘freefall’ Credit crisis
19	Foreclosures—2007
20	Foreclosures—Sept 08
21	Months’ Supply
22	Housing Market Future Sources of Uncertainty Foreclosures Consumer Psychology Recovery of Rental Market Success of Bailout Sources of Strength Favorable Interest Rates Sources of Weakness Retreat of Lenders Fear of Recession Job losses Energy